Academic papers

Analysis of changes in Australia's medical workforce

Trends in Australia's medical workforce

With Dr Stephanie Ponsonby

I am writing a paper on the trends in Australia's medical workforce, with a focus on how this reflects the effectiveness of price signals in the labour market and any constraints imposed by occupational licensing in training programs. 

Forecasting using machine learning

Machine learning augmentation reduces prediction error in collective forecasting: development and validation across prediction markets

With Alexander Gruen,  Karl R Mattingly,  Ellen Morwitch,  Frederik Bossaerts, Chad Nash, John P A Ioannidis,  Anne-Louise Ponsonby

Human-machine hybrid approaches have been identified as a new frontier for event prediction and decision making in the artificial intelligence and collective human intelligence fields. For the first time, we present the successful development and validation of a human-machine hybrid prediction market approach and demonstrate its superior accuracy when compared to prediction markets based on human forecasting alone. The advantages of this new hybrid system are demonstrated in the context of COVID-19-related event prediction. 

Melbourne Institute Working Paper

Stamp duty and equity in Australia

With Professor John Freebairn (The University of Melbourne)

Stamp duty is a core part of the Australian tax system, but large components of its effect on the economy are unknown. In particular, the distribution of stamp duty's costs are not well understood. This has been hampered by a lack of quantitative studies of stamp duty's costs, and by limited discussion of stamp duty's effect on rental markets. This paper addressed this gap by establishing a theoretical framework for understanding stamp duty's incidence, and then by estimating the distribution of its costs. We found that stamp duty is a regressive tax, and that this regressiveness is predominantly due to the fact that housing costs are a significantly higher share of household income in low income households. We also found that the economic incidence of stamp duty is not particularly relevant to interrogations of how costs are distributed, because (unlike in many other markets), most people who sell housing tend to purchase houses of a similar value within a short time period of selling. We also provided some thoughts on current reform proposals and then discussed how land taxes could be designed in light of political barriers.

Honours research essay

Stamp duty's mobility effects: Evidence from Australian homeowners

Supporting documentation (R code) for analysis replication

Stamp duty is often labelled a particularly inefficient tax, but evidence that it affects household mobility is mixed.  I used a panel of Australian homeowners to quantify stamp duty’s effect on mobility decisions.  I found that the negative effects of stamp duty on household mobility are significant. Under the more conservative of my two models, I found that a 10 per cent increase in the value of stamp duty levied on a transaction corresponds to a 2.3 per cent reduction in mobility.  In the absence of stamp duty, I found that approximately 425,000 additional housing transactions would occur each year across Australia’s mainland states (an increase of around 90 per cent). 

Policy reports and papers

Indepedent research report

Getting on Board: The case for community board members in Australia’s largest companies

Previous version was published by Per Capita

This policy report proposes a fresh approach to managing large corporations’ behaviour. It suggests appointing community board members as directors of large Australian companies. Such a policy could address some of the shortcomings of existing mechanisms designed to ensure that businesses benefit society. It could also provide a unique piece of reform for an incoming progressive Australian government. It contextualises the policy problem facing Australia, outlines the need for corporate governance reform and evaluates the policy responses available. It interrogates considerations for policy makers before implementation and concludes by reflecting on the potential this policy has for vastly improving society.

Parliamentary intern report

Beyond the Latrobe Valley: Improving how governments assist regions in transition

Written for Harriet Shing MLC

The Victorian Government played a central role in responding to the closure of the Hazelwood Power Plant in the Labrobe Valley. This report provides the Victorian Government with strategic advice about how to improve its approach to assisting regions undergoing or facing economic transition. It uses case studies and literature to inform best practice of government intervention, and evaluates the Victorian Government's response to Hazelwood's closure. It recommends the Victorian Government to take a variety of steps to streamline the provision of assistance to regions facing transition.